⚡ Breaking — Geopolitics

The Strait of Hormuz Has Become a Battlefield

Bloomberg Decades of theorizing are over. The US-Israeli war with Iran has shut the world's most critical oil chokepoint, oil prices have surged 12%, and Senate Republicans have rejected a bill to stop the conflict.

By the fifth day of the US-Israeli war with Iran, shipping has effectively stopped in the crucial Strait of Hormuz channel. A container vessel was attacked and disabled after President Trump spoke of escorting shipping through the Strait — it now floats abandoned in the waterway.

The death toll is near 1,000 people, mostly Iranians, including 165 killed when the US and Israel allegedly destroyed an elementary school for girls. The US says it is investigating. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said the US and Israel are close to controlling Iranian airspace.

Oil prices are up 12% since the first attacks Saturday, and American consumers are witnessing record jumps in gasoline prices. The US Navy sank an Iranian ship in the first torpedo hit since WWII, with more than 100 Iranian sailors missing or dead. Senate Republicans rejected a bill to stop the war late Wednesday.

A US submarine fired BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles — costing several million dollars apiece — at a rate that military analysts warn is depleting stocks needed to deter more formidable adversaries. Like China.

Markets & Investing

"The Potential for Whiplash Is Pretty High Every Single Day"

Bloomberg Wealth's Charlie Wells surveys top strategists on how investors should position during Middle East conflict — from buying the dip to diversifying into ex-US equities and commodities. Bloomberg Wealth

AI Strategy

The Great AI Game vs. AI Theater

Om Malik argues China has a coherent long-term AI strategy while the US engages in performative "AI theater" — photo ops with CEOs and unenforceable energy pledges ahead of the midterms. On My Om

Robotics

Waymo Has a School Bus-Sized Problem in Austin

Federal investigators open probes after a Waymo robotaxi illegally passed a school bus with boarding children; a second unit blocked an ambulance racing to a mass shooting scene. The Rundown

Markets Snapshot

S&P 500
~Flat YTD
effectively unchanged
Nasdaq 100
+1.5%
Wed. session
Oil Prices
+12%
since Iran attacks
US Dollar
Surging
biggest 2-day rally in ~1 yr
Jeff Bezos
+$4.9B
$241B total
Bernard Arnault
−$15.9B
$167.8B total
Commentary — On My Om Om Malik On My Om

The Great (AI) Game vs. AI Theater

"The game is so large that one sees but a little at a time." To understand AI, its stakes and its long-term impact, you have to step away from the cacophony of headlines and think of it as the Great Game — the era-defining geopolitical competition where the stakes are civilizational, the timeline is generational, and the weapons are economic and technological as much as military.

This week, Beijing released its 15th Five-Year Plan, laying out its ambitions to aggressively adopt AI throughout its economy and dominate emerging technologies. China spent the last five years targeting robotics, EVs, and post-industrial manufacturing. Now they want to do the same with AI, with or without Nvidia GPUs. Open-source AI is their new flagship strategy — a deliberate competitive advantage against the United States.

On our end, we have what I'd call AI theater. At the White House, the President gathered the CEOs of Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Oracle, OpenAI, and xAI to sign something called the "Ratepayer Protection Pledge" — a voluntary promise not to raise your electricity bill. A pinky promise dressed up as policy, timed perfectly for the midterms.

The contrast isn't really about authoritarianism versus democracy. I don't want a Five-Year Plan with Xi's name on it. But I do want to know what America's long-term strategy for winning actually is. Who trains the talent? Where does the compute go, and for whose benefit? Right now the answer seems to be: let the companies figure it out, let the politicians take photos, and hope the voters don't notice the electricity bill going up anyway.

"When everyone is dead the Great Game is finished. Not before." — Mahbub Ali, Kim (1901)

Markets & Investing Bloomberg Wealth

How to Position Your Portfolio Amid Middle East Whiplash

As oil spikes, the dollar surges, and stocks gyrate, three top strategists offer a framework for investors navigating the Iran conflict's market fallout.

A Case for Buying the Dip: "Financial markets are the only store where when things go on sale, everybody runs out," said Eric Freedman, CIO at Northern Trust Wealth Management. Goldman Sachs put out a note arguing investors should see equity corrections as buying opportunities — economic resilience and robust earnings growth mean pullbacks will be limited, despite the "significant headwind" from war and AI disruption anxiety.

Sectors to Watch: New York Life's Lauren Goodwin recommends diversifying into financials, materials, and digital infrastructure tied to the AI theme, as well as high-quality small caps and non-US developed-market equities. Read the sector-by-sector analysis →

The Oil Problem: Oil and gas production has already been interrupted as major energy infrastructure is caught in the crosshairs. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — handling ~25% of global seaborne oil and ~20% of LNG supply — has nearly stopped. This means higher prices at the pump and growing inflation risk, while placing the Fed in an impossible position between rising prices and presidential pressure to cut rates.

Dollar as Haven Returns: The US currency staged its biggest two-day rally in nearly a year, reversing months of concern over dollar weakness. MLIV Strategist Skylar Montgomery Koning: "The dollar remains the clearest beneficiary of the conflict in the Middle East."

Bloomberg Billionaires Index — Weekly Movers
  • Jeff Bezos gained the most: +$4.9B (now $241B). Amazon shares up ~3% on the week.
  • Bernard Arnault lost the most: −$15.9B (now $167.8B). LVMH shares down ~10% on the week amid luxury sector sell-off.
Robotics & Autonomous Vehicles The Rundown Robotics

Waymo Under Federal Scrutiny After School Bus and Ambulance Incidents

NHTSA and NTSB have opened formal investigations after Waymo robotaxis in Austin illegally passed a stopped school bus while children were boarding, and blocked an ambulance rushing to a mass-shooting scene.

In January, a Waymo robotaxi illegally passed a stopped school bus while children were boarding — after a remote human agent mistakenly cleared it to proceed. Austin ISD cameras have caught roughly two dozen similar Waymo school-bus violations since September. Both NHTSA and NTSB have opened formal investigations.

In a separate episode, a driverless Waymo briefly blocked an ambulance heading to an Austin mass shooting, forcing a police officer to commandeer the vehicle and move it. Waymo has filed a software recall and declined detailed public comment on the ambulance incident.

  • ~24 school-bus violations recorded by Austin ISD cameras since September
  • January incident is now the centerpiece of an active NTSB federal probe
  • Waymo insists it is improving performance around school buses and emergency scenes
  • Chinese robotaxi firms WeRide, Apollo Go, and Pony.ai paused services in parts of the Middle East amid regional tensions
Robotics & AI Hardware The Rundown Robotics

Humanoid Robots Chase Billion-Dollar Funding as Industry Heats Up

German startup Neura Robotics nears a €1B raise backed by crypto giant Tether, while ex-SpaceX and Apple veterans at Noble Machines emerge from stealth with a heavy-lifting humanoid already on factory floors.

Neura Robotics (Germany): The Metzingen-based humanoid startup is reportedly closing in on a €1B (~$1.1B) round backed by stablecoin giant Tether, valuing it at roughly €4B ($4.3B). The company already has an order book of around €1B from industrial customers for transport robots, cobots, and robotic arms. A Tether-led round would mark one of the crypto firm's boldest moves outside digital assets.

Noble Machines (Sunnyvale): Founded by engineers from SpaceX, Apple, NASA, and Caltech, Noble Machines emerged from stealth just 18 months after founding. Its Moby humanoid is already deployed at an undisclosed Fortune Global 500 manufacturer. It runs end-to-end autonomy on a single NVIDIA Jetson Orin and can haul 60 lbs. across rough terrain — putting it in the same weight class as Boston Dynamics' Atlas.

Real Estate Bloomberg Wealth

NYC Housing Market Under Dual Threat: Tax Hike Proposal & Lock-In Effect

Mayor Mamdani's proposed 10% property tax increase could worsen New York City's housing crisis even as a national trend shows homeowners staying put for a record 12 years.

To close New York City's budget gap, Mayor Zohran Mamdani floated a property tax increase that could affect more than 3 million residential units. Policy and industry experts warn the people who could afford it least would bear the brunt. Mamdani has called it a last resort.

Meanwhile, a new Redfin report finds the typical American homeowner has stayed in their home for 12 years as of December — nearly double the median tenure of two decades ago. High borrowing costs, moving expenses, and accumulated home equity are keeping owners in place, strangling supply for first-time buyers.

Robotics Roundup

Amazon Cuts 100+ Jobs in Robotics Division

Amazon cut at least 100 white-collar positions in its robotics unit, separate from the 16,000 corporate layoffs announced in January. The Rundown

Hyundai Unveils Firefighting Robot

Designed to navigate dangerous environments, withstand intense heat and smoke, and support human crews in active fire zones. The Rundown

Qualcomm CEO: Robotics to Become "Major Business" Within Two Years

Cristiano Amon says the company's new Dragonwing AI chips will power a significant expansion into the robotics market. The Rundown

Google DeepMind Launches First European Robotics Accelerator

A three-month, equity-free program for early-stage European robotics startups — the first such initiative from the AI giant outside the US. The Rundown

Next-Gen Coco Delivery Bots Hit LA Streets

Larger, tougher, and more autonomous Coco robots are rolling out in Los Angeles, built to better handle the wear and tear of city streets. The Rundown

Pony.ai Claims Per-Vehicle Profitability in Shenzhen

The seventh-generation robotaxi has reached per-vehicle profitability in its second Chinese tier-one city after Guangzhou — a landmark for the AV industry. The Rundown

AI & Tech Strategy

China's 15th Five-Year Plan: AI Dominance as National Strategy

Beijing commits to AI across its economy, with targeted investment in chips, quantum computing, humanoid robots, and open-source AI. "They got the game," writes Om Malik. On My Om

Tech Giants Sign White House "Ratepayer Protection Pledge"

Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Oracle, OpenAI, and xAI signed a voluntary pledge not to pass data center energy costs to consumers. Critics call it "a pinky promise dressed up as policy." On My Om

OpenAI's IPO Strategy: Cash In Before the Party Ends?

Om Malik argues OpenAI is accelerating toward a public offering by annualizing four weeks of revenue — "not a company executing a strategy to win the great game, but an opportunist executing a strategy to get as much from public markets as it can." On My Om

China's Defense Budget Is Bigger Than You Think

Bloomberg Opinion on Xi Jinping's military modernization plans — and why the official numbers drastically understate actual spending. Bloomberg

How Trump's FCC Is Policing Speech on TV Networks

Bloomberg Explains examines the regulatory mechanics behind the FCC's new media enforcement push. Bloomberg

China Builds Massive 3D Face Database for Humanoid Robots

Researchers created a high-precision 3D facial dataset and AI model to give humanoid robots more natural, expressive faces — deepening the country's lead in social robotics. The Rundown

Finance & Economy

Billionaire Jain Bets on India's Wealth Boom

A prominent Indian billionaire is positioning to capture growth from India's expanding middle class and wealth management market. Bloomberg Wealth

Dimon Says "Exuberant" Market Doesn't Match "Fine" Economy

JPMorgan's CEO warns investors that equity market euphoria is disconnected from the underlying economic reality, as geopolitical risks mount. Bloomberg Wealth

Blackstone CEO Took Home Near-Record $1.24B in 2025

Blackstone's CEO compensation reflects the firm's strong performance in private equity and alternative assets even as public markets gyrated. Bloomberg Wealth

Child Marriage Costs World Economy $175B Per Year

A Columbia/CGD study backed by Sheryl Sandberg finds that cuts to humanitarian aid could reverse progress on ending child marriages — which cost the global economy $175B annually in lost productivity. Bloomberg

El Niño Risks Blunting Peru's Farm-Export Boom

Erratic weather patterns threaten to disrupt one of South America's most promising agricultural export stories as global food supply chains face added strain. Bloomberg

Investors Short Private Credit Poster Child Blue Owl Capital

Short sellers are piling into Blue Owl Capital, betting the private credit stock has further to fall after losing nearly a third of its value this year following a botched fund merger plan. Bloomberg